The uncertain impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Nepal’s social economy will magnify depending on how events unfold on three fronts: first, its dependence on tourism, trade, and foreign employment – and the consequences that will propagate through the services and industrial landscape; second, if or when the spread of the pandemic overwhelms a grossly inadequate health infrastructure and antivirals or vaccine become available; and third, Nepal’s heavy geo-economic reliance on India and China, and the nature of contagion in those countries Based on a painstaking survey of 700 businesses and 400 individuals, and consultations with over 30 private sector organizations and government agencies, conducted tenaciously during the lockdown, we find that the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted supply chains, shut or threatened the survival of small and informal enterprises, and made people highly vulnerable to falling back into poverty through widespread loss of income and jobs.