A country can do anything it wants to when it is economically prosperous: Krishna Prasad Oli

The Government of Nepal (GoN) has heavily invested in post-COVID-19 recovery efforts. Some countries have taken this as an opportunity for a ‘green recovery’ to ensure a cleaner, healthier, and more sustainable society. Where do we stand in that respect?

The government has given due attention to COVID-19 recovery and the results will be seen in the future. Pandemics like this have taken place in the past and have often resulted in new ways of doing things. Some countries have thus seen this as an opportunity to develop the health sector while others have given emphasis to green recovery. Nepal’s 15th periodic plan too has clearly spelled out ways to achieve prosperity through forests -- timber production, medicinal and aromatic plants, and forests-based industries. We have the potential to produce 130 million cubic feet of timber annually. Even if we are able to achieve half of that figure with the current technology, the revenue will be phenomenal. With the use of more modern technology and skilled human resource, there is tremendous scope.

Likewise, our plan envisions establishing forest-based industries in all seven provinces. This can be accelerated in the post-pandemic recovery plan. Under the ‘forest for prosperity’ campaign, we have prioritized both timber and non-timber products. As a mountainous country, we also have great potential to produce medicinal and herbal products.

Energy is also a major sector for the development of a green economy and the government has accorded high priority to hydro and solar energy, which will be the engines of future economic growth.

As the pandemic is not over yet, we need to prioritize health, education, and the social sector. People’s health and quality of education are indicators of development. During the height of the pandemic, students weren’t able to go to schools for months because of COVID-19. Even many students in urban areas were traumatized due to financial issues. All of this will have psychological impacts. The government is considering ways to deal these problems in the future. Virtual education has its limitations. Many of our mountainous districts and even some Terai areas still lack access to the internet. These issues should be prioritized in the post-recovery period.

Further, we are discussing how to revive other COVID-19-affected sectors like tourism and industries. Unlike the 2015 earthquakes, it’s a bit difficult to respond to crises like Covid-19. For example, we prepared a post-earthquake recovery plan and it worked. But applying the same approach in the case of COVID-19 is difficult as we still do not know how long this pandemic will last and its full impacts on society and the national economy.

Periodic plans and annual plans are the tools that all three tiers of governments employ to usher in development. Noting the high risk that Nepal faces from both climatic and non-climatic hazards, how important is to ‘risk inform’ these development plans? How is the NPC supporting this process?

As an apex planning body, the NPC is working on a recovery plan to address these climatic and non-climatic hazards. It’s stated that the temperature of the oceans has increased by two degrees due to global climate change, but if you talk about the impact of climate change on the mountains, one third of glaciers will melt by the end of this century, even if the target of maintaining 1.5 degree centigrade is achieved. The temperature of the Bay of Bengal increasing by another two percent will ultimately cause flash floods and untimely rainfall, impacting cropping patterns in countries like ours. Evidence also suggests that the nutrient content of the food crops will also be altered. Thus, our preparedness should focus on climate change-related disasters.

Economic growth, if not sustainable, has environmental costs. In Nepal’s context, how can we move forward by balancing economic prosperity as well as environmental sustainability? The global discourse is currently centered on ‘local solutions’ to resolve this dilemma - what can Nepal’s local solutions be?

Local solutions are related to nature. During the pandemic, we enforced a nationwide lockdown when cases of coronavirus were reported. Many people were likely protected because of the lockdown. People are now walking about and doing their work by adopting precautions and health protocols. They seem to have realized that they can stay safe when they take precautions.

As far as growth is concerned, when the coronavirus emerged in Nepal in March, we were in line to meet seven percent economic growth as projected. But COVID-19 disrupted economic activities and the supply chain, which in turn hampered our economy. Despite all odds, the construction of mega projects continues, even if their pace has been a bit slow due to the pandemic.

Talking about sustainability, the 15th periodic plan has incorporated all of the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and indicators. We have been consistently monitoring the progress made so far in meeting the targets. As per the most recent monitoring report, we are close to meeting SDG No. 7, which relates to energy. We are also close to goals in the environment and forest sector.

The SDGs are not a separate goal. They are part of a holistic development approach that prioritizes the green economy and natural sectors. Thus, we are focusing on clean energy and have already generated 1,400-1,500 MW of electricity. More hydropower plants will soon be producing about 3,000 MW of electricity. We are also making good progress in solar energy. There are some issues related to land acquisition and the building of transmission lines but as we are a democratic country, people’s concerns need to be settled amicably. That’s why the completion of some projects is behind schedule.

Nature-based solutions are also related to development. People might say that the government is only constructing roads and building airports by destroying forests. But the present government is very environmentally sensitive. We need to maintain a fine balance between development and preserving the environment. Otherwise, we will remain underdeveloped forever. If you look at China, they have now allocated 62 billion Yuan for ecosystem restoration in Tibet while also pursuing development there. A country can do anything it wants to when it is economically prosperous.

In order to pursue nature-based solutions at the local level, we need to encourage community forestry where community user groups have been expanding forest coverage, generating employment, and helping the people’s livelihoods. Similarly, we have also given major emphasis to the conservation and protection of the Chure region. Local solutions are emerging from both local communities and local governments.

The GoN recently revised its National Determined Contributions that outlines Nepal’s ambition towards net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. This commitment is in-line with the 15th plan. Do you think COVID-19 will overshadow other important agenda such as climate change and disaster risk reduction?

This should be viewed from three perspectives—global, national, and local. If you look at things on a global scale, climate change is related to greenhouse gas emissions by the burning of fossil fuels. But Nepal only contributes 0.027 percent to global carbon emissions, which is almost insignificant. However, we can’t shy away from our responsibility as we are also party to the Paris Agreement and morally responsible to be a part of the solution. That’s why we are working on national strategies that are formulated based on the agreement. At the local level, we have taken initiatives to mitigate the risk of climate change. To reduce carbon emissions, we have maintained almost 45 percent forest coverage—the second highest in South Asia, after Bhutan, which has 75 percent forest coverage.

These are our climate adaptation measures. Apart from this, we want to promote massive agroforestry programs that will support our economy and development works.

But going back to your question, COVID-19 has definitely disrupted the economy and has largely affected revenue generation. We may have to suffer for at least a couple of years because of this, even if the virus is contained.

What kind of support can multilateral agencies, including the UN, provide to complement the government’s green recovery efforts? What is your impression of the on-going cooperation?

The UN is also our agency. That’s why they should not be treated as different stakeholders. They are doing their best to support us. We have been partnering with them in preparing our recovery plans. They are also supporting the NPC in localizing SDGs, preparing guidelines, and providing technical assistance, as and when necessary. UNDP especially can support us technically where we have deficiencies, i.e., human resource and knowledge, which they have been doing.

Multilateral donors like the World Bank, Asian Development Bank and International Monetary Fund support us by providing grants and loans as well as sharing experiences. These types of support should continue for countries like us that are progressing to graduate from LDC status. And given COVID-19, that support will be even more important. Additionally, we are formulating a recovery plan and we anticipate support for certain funding requirements.

What measures are being put in place to strengthen social protection systems for vulnerable and marginalized groups to protect them from future shocks?

On social protection, health insurance is important. The government will come up with new policies with a special focus on health, education, and nutrition. New policies will be introduced based on the recovery plan.

As official development assistance has been declining for Nepal (and other developing countries headed towards LDC graduation), what is Nepal’s strategy for self-sufficiency? Is Nepal going to focus on enhancing public revenue, allocate the budget more efficiently, or push for more Official Development Assistance?

We should focus on enhancing production in every sector – green, energy, industry, food, and others. Our forest and grassland coverage should be utilized in an optimal fashion. Tourism is another area of income generation. More importantly, we should move towards human capital formation, which means we should enhance the knowledge and skills of our people. National revenue should also be increased.

Existing industries should run at full capacity and new industries should be established at the local level. Mines should come into operation. Some transformative projects envisioned in the 15th five-year plan should be our priority. As we are an LDC, we must continue to negotiate support from bilateral and multilateral agencies.

In order to graduate from LDC status, we have managed to meet the criteria for human wealth index and the threshold of economic vulnerability. However, we have to still work hard on per capita national income. We also have to think seriously about sustaining that graduation in the longer term.